Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Roger Biduk - Recession Hits Bay Street

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market dropped more than 150 points Tuesday as the Bank of Canada declared the economy was moving into a recession and cut its main interest rate by three-quarters of a point to 1.5 per cent.
Bank stocks led the way down as Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index fell 169.56 points or two per cent to 8,397.56.
The TSX Venture Exchange closed down 12.16 points to 686.02.

The big interest rate cut by the central bank and a new equity issue by the Royal Bank (TSX:RY) pushed the financial sector down more than five per cent.
The banks also held back from passing the whole three-quarter-point policy rate cut along to their customers, trimming the prime lending rate by half a point.
RBC lost $2.21 to $35.29 after announcing a new issue up to $2.3 billion worth of common stock. TD was down $3.40 to $42.10 and CIBC shed $2.96 to $50.31.

The loonie closed down 0.66 cents at 79.08 cents U.S., after dropping more than a cent shortly after the central bank cut its key rate to the lowest level since 1958 and added that "the global recession will be broader and deeper than previously anticipated."

In Toronto, the telecom sector was off 2.25 per cent as BCE Inc. (TSX:BCE) fell $2.15 to $22.50 after the company said it has hired accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers to help make its case to KPMG auditors who ruled it did not meet a key condition of its deal to be acquired by a group led by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.

The industrial sector gave back 1.4 per cent as Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR) declined $1.56 to $42.75.

The energy sector was flat as oil prices flattened on expectations of weakening demand. The January crude contract in New York declined $1.64 to US$42.07 a barrel after rising almost US$3 Monday.
On the TSX, Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) lost $1.30 to $40.90 while Suncor Inc. (TSX:SU) improved 67 cents to $23.97.
Crescent Point Energy Trust (TSX:CPG.UN) was up 78 cents to $21.59 as it set its 2009 capital budget at $225 million and said it expects to boost oil production by four per cent.
Major Drilling Group International Inc. (TSX:MDI) eased 97 cents to $9.99 after an August-October profit of $29.3 million, up from $22.6 million a year ago, as revenue rose 22 per cent. However, the global provider of mine-drilling services warned of a slowdown next year, especially in base metals.

The gold sector rose 1.45 per cent with the February bullion contract ahead $4.90 to US$774.20. Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) faded 75 cents to $35.10.

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Roger Biduk - Bay Street Lower at Midday

Roger Biduk writes:

Blue chips in Toronto were sinking Tuesday afternoon, led by a drop in financial stocks after the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut its key interest rate on Tuesday by three-quarters of a percentage point to a 50-year low of 1.50 percent and declared the Canadian economy to be in a recession.

The S&P/TSX composite index was off 79.87 points to 8,487.25.
The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, was trading 0.59 cents lower at 79.19 cents US.
Six of the TSX sub-groups traded higher this afternoon -- health-care stocks were up 3.05 percent followed by a 1.34 percent gain in gold issues and 0.95 percent rise in energy stocks.
Gold was gaining 40 cents to $769.70 US an ounce.

On the downside -- financial stocks fell 3.76 percent; telecom issues shed 2.18 percent and consumer discretionary stocks dipped 1.75 percent.

Meanwhile, the TSX Venture Exchange slipped 8.55 points to 689.63 and the NASDAQ Canada was off 5.32 points at 406.11.

On the corporate front -- Canada's largest bank Royal Bank of Canada says it plans to issue up to $2.3 billion in common shares to beef up its regulatory capital ratio.
Davie Yards Inc. has announced an agreement to get a US$10-million financial injection from shipbuilder Bergen Group of Norway and Davie client Cecon ASA, a Norwegian subsea installation contractor.
Major Drilling Group International Inc. climbed 15 cents to $11.11 after an August-October profit of $29.3 million, up from $22.6 million a year ago, as revenue rose 22 per cent. However, the global provider of mine-drilling services warned of a slowdown next year, especially in base metals.

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Monday, December 8, 2008

Roger Biduk - Bay Street Soars Over 400 Points

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market posted a gain of more than 400 points on Monday, led by solid advances in energy and financial stocks.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index surged 450.09 points or 5.55 per cent to 8,567.12, while New York's Dow Jones industrial average moved up 298.76 points to 8,934.18.
TSX Venture Exchange moved up 13.61 points to 697.92.

The Canadian dollar climbed 1.06 cents to 79.74 cents U.S. as traders looked ahead to an expected interest-rate cut of at least a half percentage point by the Bank of Canada on Tuesday.

The TSX energy sector moved up 7.5 per cent as oil prices bounced off multi-year lows after the president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hinted at a "severe" production cut at OPEC's meeting Dec. 17. Light sweet crude rose $2.90 to US$43.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) shot up $4.75 to $55.61 on the TSX while Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) gained $2.87 to $42.20.

Financials climbed 4.25 per cent as Royal Bank (TSX:RY) rose $1.10 to $37.50 and CIBC (TSX:CM) advanced $3.52 to $53.27.

The base-metals sector climbed 11 per cent while copper surged 12.45 cents to US$1.498 a pound, sending Teck Cominco Ltd. (TSX:TCK.B) up 32 cents to $4.25. FNX Mining Co. (TSX:FNX) added 37 cents or 17 per cent to $2.54.

Gold stocks ran up as bullion rose $17.10 to US$769.30 an ounce. Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) gained $2.45 to $30.30.

Other prominent stocks taking the TSX higher Potash Corp., up $9.49 or 14 per cent, to $76.99 while shares in BCE Inc. (TSX:BCE) gained $1.80 or 7.9 per cent to $24.65 on a report the telecom has a new auditor's opinion that the company would be solvent after a leveraged buyout by a group led by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.
The deal had appeared dead last week after KPMG ruled BCE would not meet a key solvency test after taking on more than $30 billion in debt, as contemplated in the takeover. That solvency test is a condition of the deal.

JLL Partners Inc. of New York has made a bid for the 71 per cent of Patheon Inc. (TSX:PTI) it does not already own, offering US$2 per share for the international drug manufacturer. Patheon shares rocketed $1.12 or 104.6 per cent to C$2.19.

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Sunday, December 7, 2008

Roger Biduk - Late Day Recovery on Bay Street

Roger Biduk writes;

The Toronto stock market staged a late day recovery to close higher as financials largely turned positive amid pessimism about the economy and lower commodity prices.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index rose 59.21 points to 8,117.03 with losses led by energy stocks, as investors also took in grim Canadian data.
The TSX Venture Exchange was 13.55 points lower to 684.31.
The Canadian dollar closed up 0.44 cents at 78.68 cents U.S.

Despite the late day rally, it was still a brutal week on the TSX, which tumbled 12.4 per cent thanks to big declines in all the major sectors of the market.

In Canada, Statistics Canada reported the economy shed 70,600 jobs last month, the biggest one-month drop since 1982, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.3 per cent. And analysts warned investors to expect more awful data.

The TSX energy sector was down 0.55 per cent as the January crude contract in New York slid $2.86 to US$40.81 a barrel, plunging 25 per cent this week on growing worries about demand in the face of worsening economic conditions.
EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) rose $1.04 to $50.86, while Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) fell $1.67 to $39.33.

The Toronto financial sector also got a boost from the news, ending the day up 2.6 per cent after Royal Bank (TSX:RY) reported a 15 per cent decline in quarterly profit to $1.12 billion, as revenue sagged 10 per cent to $5.07 billion. Its shares moved down 77 cents to $36.40.
Laurentian Bank's (TSX:LB) fourth-quarter profit edged down to $27.3 million from $30.2 million a year ago. Its shares were down $2.63 to $32.90.
Canadian insurers also enjoyed a bounce with Manulife Financial (TSX:MFC) up $1.33 to $20.80 and Sun Life Financial (TSX:SLF) ahead $1.84 to $26.20.

BCE Inc. (TSX:BCE) was down 10 cents to $22.85 after the telecom company denied rumours that the investment group led by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan is proposing to take a minority holding. BCE stock had risen four per cent Thursday on the speculation.

The base metals sector moved down 1.9 per cent as March copper prices moved down 9.6 cents to US$1.3735 a pound. Teck Cominco Ltd. (TSX:TCK.B) lost 12 cents to $3.93 and Sherritt International (TSX:S) moved down 15 cents to $2.92.

The gold sector faded 0.4 per cent as the February bullion contract declined $13.30 to US$752.20 an ounce. Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) was $1 lower to $27.85.

The tech sector turned supportive as Research In Motion Ltd. (TSX:RIM) advanced $2.46 to $50.36.

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Friday, December 5, 2008

Roger Biduk - Lower Day on Bay Street

Roger Biduk writes:

Blue chips in Toronto traded lower Friday afternoon -- after data showed a massive drop in employment in the United States and Canada last month while Royal Bank reported a 15 percent decline in profit.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 167.55 points to 7,890.27.

Canada's largest bank reported a 15 percent decline in quarterly profit. The Royal Bank of Canada earned $1.12 billion in the fourth quarter of the banking year, down from $1.32 billion a year earlier. Revenue sagged 10 percent to $5.07 billion.

Laurentian Bank (LB.TO) reported Friday a fourth-quarter profit of $27.3 million, down slightly from a year-ago $30.2 million and said its full-year earnings came in at a record $102.5 million. The Montreal-based bank said its earnings for the quarter ended Oct. 31 amounted to $1.02 per share, versus $1.14 per share in the year-ago period.

West 49 Inc. (WWX.TO) scored a profit or $2.1 million in the back-to-school quarter, down from $2.6 million a year earlier. But the action-sports retailer said Friday its sales grew to $61.7 million in its third quarter ended Oct. 25, up 4.4 percent from a year earlier, as same-store sales advanced 2.1 percent.

On the data front -- Statistics Canada reported the economy shed 70,600 jobs last month, against the 20,000 expectation, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent. The job losses included 66,000 in Ontario.

Down south -- The Labor Department said U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunged by an astonishing 533,000 last month, the worst such tally in 34 years, with the unemployment rate climbing to 6.7 percent, the highest since October 1993.

Also -- a record 1.35 million homes were in foreclosure in the third quarter, driving the foreclosure rate up to 2.97 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday. That's a 76 percent increase from a year ago, according to the group's National Delinquency Survey.

The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, was trading 1.24 cents lower at 77.18 cents US.

Two of the TSX sub-groups traded higher this afternoon -- tech stocks were up 1.04 percent and consumer staples stocks gained 0.21 percent.

On the downside -- gold stocks fell 5.46 percent. COMEX gold for February delivery lost $14.50 to $751 US an ounce.

Oil was shedding 90 cents to $42.77 US a barrel. Energy issues shed 4.84 percent and mining stocks dipped 3.67 percent.

Meanwhile, the TSX Venture Exchange shed 17.17 points to 680.69 and the NASDAQ Canada was off 0.52 points at 378.41.

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Thursday, December 4, 2008

Roger Biduk - Commodities Hammer Bay Street

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market shed more than 200 points Thursday as commodity stocks were hammered by lower metal and oil prices.
The S&P/TSX composite index surrendered 239.14 points to finish the session at 8,057.82.
The TSX Venture Exchange was down 14.22 points to 697.86 .

Analysts downplayed the impact of the power struggle in Ottawa on the financial markets.

The CDN$ closed down 1.54 cents to 78.24 cents U.S., after the governor general agreed to Prime Minister Stephen Harper's request to shut down Parliament until he can present a budget next month.

BCE Inc. (TSX:BCE) was a rare bright spot, up $1.05 to $22.95 after Bloomberg reported that private equity firms are proposing to buy a minority stake in the telecom, rather than all of it.
The report comes a week before a Dec. 11 deadline to complete a deal with a group led by the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan that appears all but officially dead.

Crude oil tumbled $3.12 to US$43.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange - its lowest close since January 2005 on demand worries
The TSX energy sector fell seven per cent. EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) fell $3.06 to $49.82 and Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) faltered $6.37 to $41.

Base metals stocks gave back ground as copper sagged 8.5 cents to US$1.4695 a pound.
The base metals sector tumbled 7.25 per cent with Teck Cominco Ltd. (TSX:TCK.B) down 30 cents to $4.05.

The TSX financial sector closed down after TD Bank (TSX:TD), CIBC (TSX:CM) and National Bank (TSX:NA) reported earnings. The banks were hit by credit losses and provisions, but maintained their healthy dividends.
Among the banks, TD closed down 58 cents to $41.92 after its fourth-quarter net income came in at $1.01 billion, off from $1.09 billion a year ago.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX:CM) earned $436 million, down from $884 million, but its shares gained 88 cents to $46.18. National Bank shares slipped $2.27 to $35.55 after fourth-quarter earnings of $70 million, up from a year-ago loss of $175 million.
Royal Bank (TSX:RY), which reports Friday, declined $1.08 to $37.17.

Also reporting was Bombardier Inc. (TSX:BBD.B) with a summer-quarter profit of US$245 million, up from $91 million a year ago. The global plane and train maker's revenue ran up eight per cent to $4.57 billion. Its shares rose three cents to $3.92.
Among shares trading higher on the Toronto market, George Weston Ltd. (TSX:WN) rose $2.51 to $59, as subsidiary Loblaw (TSX:L) ran ahead $1.50 to $33.50. The TSX consumer staples group overall gained per cent.
Paper producer AbitibiBowater Inc. (TSX:ABH) declined three cents to 60 cents after announcing it is cutting 1,100 jobs as it closes its newsprint mill in Grand Falls, N.L., and a plant in Tennessee.

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Roger Biduk - Bay Street Higher in Late Morning

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market maintained a solid advance late Thursday morning in a broad-based upturn led by the financial sector as investors took in earnings reports from three of the big Canadian banks.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index moved up 71.62 points to 8,368.58 with the energy sector the only big decliner.
The TSX Venture Exchange was down 6.16 to 705.92.

The Canadian dollar was off 0.74 cent to 79.04 cents US as Prime Minister Stephen Harper strives to retain power for his Conservative minority against a Liberal-NDP coalition.

The TSX financial sector was up two per cent as TD Bank (TSX: TD.TO), CIBC (TSX: CM.TO) and National Bank (TSX: NA.TO) reported earnings. The banks were hit by credit losses and provisions, but maintained their healthy dividends.

Also reporting was Bombardier Inc. (TSX: BBD-B.TO) with a summer-quarter profit of US$245 million, up from $91 million a year ago. The global plane and train maker's revenue ran up eight per cent to $4.57 billion. Its shares rose 14 cents to $4.03.

Among the banks, TD shares rose 81 cents to $43.31 after its fourth-quarter net income came in at $1.01 billion, off from $1.09 billion a year ago.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX: CM.TO) earned $436 million, down from $884 million, but its shares gained $2.12 to $47.42.

National Bank advanced 73 cents to $38.55 after fourth-quarter earnings of $70 million, up from a year-ago loss of $175 million.

Royal Bank (TSX: RY.TO), which reports Friday, gained $1.56 to $39.81.

TSX telecom stocks were also a major support as Telus Corp. (TSX: T.TO) gained 68 cents to $37.06 while Rogers Communications (TSX: RCI-B.TO) improved $1.07 to $35.21.

Roger Biduk writes:
The TSX energy sector was down 1.25 per cent as the January crude contract in New York lost $1.13 to US$45.66 a barrel after earlier falling as low as US$45.30, a level last seen in early 2005 as traders see demand shrinking because of worsening economic conditions.

"You could see prices testing $40 by the end of the year because the economic data is really ugly at the moment," commented Christoffer Moltke-Leth, head of sales trading at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.

"Demand destruction is still very much the concern."

Suncor Inc. (TSX: SU.TO) gave back 45 cents to $22.82 and Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ.TO) faltered $1.22 46.15.

Investors also took in news from companies trying to cope with worsening economic conditions.

AT&T Inc. joined the recession's cavalcade of layoffs by announcing it will cut 12,000 people, four per cent of its workforce. Chemical maker DuPont says it will cut 2,500 jobs, and Credit Suisse Group is eliminating 5,300 - 11 per cent of its global total.

Meanwhile, leading mobile phone maker Nokia Corp. downgraded its fourth-quarter outlook for the second time.

In Canada, shares in paper producer AbitibiBowater Inc. (TSX: ABH.TO) were unchanged at 63 cents after it announced it is cutting 1,100 jobs as it closes its troubled newsprint mill in Grand Falls, N.L., and a plant in Tennessee to cope with falling demand in the North American market.

Shares in baked goods company George Weston Ltd. (TSX: WN.TO) rose $1.91 to $58.40 after it said Thursday its is in talks to sell its Dunedin unit's U.S. fresh bread and baked goods business to Grupo Bimbo of Mexico.

European stock markets were narrowly mixed despite big interest-rate reductions. The European Central Bank cut its policy interest rate to 2.5 per cent from 3.25 per cent, and the Bank of England slashed its rate by a full percentage point to two per cent, the lowest since 1951.

The FTSE 100 was 0.85 per cent higher in London, while Germany's DAX gained one per cent and the French CAC-40 was flat.

Tokyo's Nikkei index closed down one per cent, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.6 per cent.

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