Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Roger Biduk - Bay Street Fights Back

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market rose nearly 500 points Tuesday, offsetting a good chunk of the record-setting loss that followed the failure of a US$700-billion bailout for the U.S. financial industry.

Higher oil prices contributed to Tuesday's gains, as well as cautious optimism over the possibility that a compromise financial-sector bailout can be reached in the United States.

But the Canadian dollar took a beating, falling 1.82 cents to 93.97 cents US amid concerns about economic fallout from the political and financial upheaval in the United States.

The S&P/TSX composite index added 467.83 points to close at 11,752.9, after plunging close to 850 points Monday. The TSX Venture Exchange gained 32.97 points to 1,415.

Oil gained $4.27 to US$100.64 following Monday's plunge of US$10.52 amid worries that the U.S. financial crisis will ravage the global economy and cut energy consumption.

The TSX had its steepest-ever point drop Monday, losing 840.93 points, totaling 7.5 per cent or approximately $100 billion of its market value. The previous record one-day drop on Canada's largest stock market was 840.26 points on Oct. 25, 2000.

The Bank of Canada said Tuesday it will auction $4 billion worth of 28-day purchase and resale agreements on Wednesday and is selling $4 billion of its holdings of treasury bills as it works to lubricate seized-up credit markets.

In Canada, government data showed the national economy grew 0.7 per cent in July - well ahead of the 0.2 per cent increase projected by private-sector economists.

The Toronto financial sector was up 5.4 per cent in Tuesday trading. Royal Bank (TSX: RY.TO), TD Bank (TSX: TD.TO) and Bank of Montreal (TSX: BMO.TO) have been cited as possible shoppers for assets amidst the turmoil that has engulfed U.S. banks. Royal shares were up $3 to $50.50, while BMO gained $3.95 to $45.95, a jump of more than nine per cent.

The TSX energy sector rose 5.8 per cent. Sector heavyweight EnCana (TSX: ECA.TO) was up $2.96 to $67.96 while Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ.TO) gained $7.73, or 11.5 per cent, to $73.
The metals sector jumped 7.6 per cent after declining 12.8 per cent Monday. Teck Cominco (TSX: TCK-B.TO) added $1.30 to $30.22 after losing close to 14 per cent of its value Monday.

The gold sector lost 0.8 per cent as the December bullion contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $13.60 to US$880.80 per ounce. Goldcorp (TSX: G.TO) lost 93 cents to $33.47 while Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX.TO) fell $1.47 to $38.97.

In other corporate news, Fording Canadian Coal Trust (TSX: FDG-UN.TO) was up $8.15, or more than 10 per cent, to $87.27 as Teck Cominco Ltd. (TSX: TCK-B.TO) received the final stamp of approval on $10 billion in financing needed for its takeover of Fording.

Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX: CP.TO) shares were up $1 to $57.07 after it received U.S. regulatory approval for its US$1.48-billion acquisition of Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad.

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Monday, September 29, 2008

Roger Biduk - Bay Street Down on Oil & Bailout Bill

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market had its biggest point-drop in history on Monday, as investors reacted to a major defeat for the Bush administration's US$700-billion bailout of the U.S. financial industry.

The Canadian dollar also took a hit, falling $1.03 to 95.79 cents US, amid concerns about the economic fallout that will be felt from the political and financial upheaval being felt in the United States.

Toronto's S&P/TSX index fell 840.93 points Monday to close at 11,285.07, a loss of approximately $100 billion. The previous biggest one-day point drop on Canada's largest stock market was 840.26-points, on Oct. 25, 2000. At one point, the Toronto market's main index was down as much as 955 points. The TSX Venture Exchange fell 133.61 points to 1,382.03.

Crude prices also fell, sending the TSX lower as the November crude contract in New York declined $10.52 to US$96.37 a barrel. Crude has now fallen 34 per cent since surging to an all-time record of $147.27 on July 11.

Investors appeared to find little reassurance in a move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and other central banks to pump money into the world's credit markets. The Bank of Canada said Monday that it and the Federal Reserve have agreed to expand their reciprocal currency arrangement to US$30 billion, up from the US$10 billion announced Sept. 18.

Also, the Canadian government announced Monday it had a slightly smaller budgetary surplus in the 2007-08 than originally estimated. It was $9.6 billion, down from the previous estimate of $10.2 billion. And Scotiabank economists said Monday the prices of Canada's commodity exports tumbled 8.9 per cent last month after seven consecutive record highs, and are continuing to slide.

The news from the U.S. sent the Toronto financial sector down 5.8 per cent. Royal Bank (TSX:RY), TD Bank (TSX:TD) and Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) have been cited as possible shoppers for assets amidst the turmoil that has engulfed U.S. banks. Royal shares were down $3.42 to $47.50, while BMO lost $4.30 to $42.

The TSX energy sector fell 10.6 per cent as energy heavyweight EnCana (TSX:ECA) was down $6.22 to $65 while Suncor (TSX:SU) lost $5.43 to $41.12.

The metals sector plunged 12.8 per cent as Teck Cominco (TSX:TCK.B) gave up $4.65, or close to 14 per cent of its value, to $28.92 even as it announced it has secured financing for its $14-billion takeover of Fording Canadian Coal Trust (TSX:FDG.UN).
The gold sector gave up 0.4 per cent even as the December bullion contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $5.90 to US$894.40 per ounce.

European stock markets tumbled as Dutch-Belgian banking and insurance operator Fortis NV got an 11.2-billion-euro bailout from the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. Meanwhile, the British government announced it's nationalizing troubled mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley.

The FTSE 100 index closed down per 5.3 per cent in London, while the German DAX fell 4.2 per cent and the French CAC 40 surrendered five per cent.

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Saturday, September 27, 2008

Roger Biduk - TSX Drops almost 800 points for the Week

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market has tumbled more than 400 points or about three per cent at the end of a punishing week.

The TSX was hit with a triple whammy - uncertainty over an American financial system rescue plan punished bank stocks, BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (TSX:RIM) shares took a huge drop and lower oil prices sent energy stocks down.

The S&P/TSX composite index finished the day well off its 518-point low of the day, down 420.51 points to 12,126 for a loss of 787 points or 6.1 per cent this week.

Normally, a 400-plus point drop is big news, but this is only the fourth-largest drop in the month so far. The index also soared almost 850 points in one day a week ago.

Research in Motion's disappointing quarterly earnings torpedoed its stock, dropping more than 25% to $75.45 in the opening minutes, a $24.49 change. RIM showed no signs of recovery at the close, finishing the day at $72.57, a $28.43-per-share drop, or 28.15%, to lead a widespread fall-off across all the major sectors on the exchange.

Meanwhile EnCana Corp. and Suncor Energy stocks were both hit hard. EnCana closed at $71.22, down $3.40 or 4.56% while Suncor settled at $46.55 a 4.67% drop for $2.28 per share.

The two largest energy companies on the exchange contributed to a 28.34% slump in the sector as world markets worried disappearing U.S. credit would strangle global growth and lessen demand in crude oil and other resources.

The Canadian dollar closed up 0.14 cent at 96.82 cents US.

Roger Biduk is an investment advisor and services clients in Montreal, Hudson, West Island and throughout the provinces of Quebec & Ontario.


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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Roger Biduk - Bay Street Higher on Energy & Rescue Plan

Roger Biduk writes:

The Toronto stock market managed a slight gain Thursday as financial stocks improved on growing optimism a deal is close on a US$700-billion bailout of the U.S. financial industry and energy stocks benefited from a late-day jump in crude prices.

In Toronto the S&P/TSX composite index came back from a triple-digit slide to close up 33.15 points to 12,546.51, held back by falling gold and base metal stocks.

The TSX Venture Exchange slipped 9.96 points to 1,540.68 while the Canadian dollar was ahead 0.22 cent to 96.68 cents US.

Canada's top central banker waded into the debate Thursday and said the world's economies would be at serious risk without the bailout.
Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney said Thursday that other countries may need to follow the Americans' lead with similar government rescue packages to help out their domestic financial institutions. He also said Canada is in better shape than most to weather the storm, but will not be immune from the aftershocks.

The TSX energy sector was up 1.4 per cent as oil prices switched direction to move higher. The November crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $2.29 to US$108.02. Suncor Inc. (TSX:SU) gained $1.30 to $48.83 and EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) moved ahead $1.82 to $74.62. Calgary-based Tanganyika Oil Co. (TSX:TYK) has struck a deal to be acquired by Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corp. The Chinese oil major is offering $31.50 per share in cash, a total of $2 billion, for Tanganyika, which is active in Syria. Its shares jumped $3.15 or 12 per cent to $29.15.

The financial sector was up one per cent as TD Bank (TSX:TD) gained $1.60 to $64.50 and Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) advanced 57 cents to $49.42.

The TSX gold sector was down 4.3 per cent as the December gold contract in New York faded $13 to US$882. Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) declined $2.37 to $35.60 and Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) fell $2.25 to $37.70.

Also, market heavyweight Potash Corp. (TSX:POT) gave back $4.66 to $163.33.
Elsewhere on the TSX, CryoCath Technologies Inc. (TSX:CYT) bumped up $4.06 or 91.44 per cent to $8.50 on news that Medtronic Inc. (NYSE:MDT) has agreed to pay $400 million to buy the Montreal developer of heart-surgery equipment.
MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. (TSX:MDA) tumbled $4.43 or 16 per cent to $23 after warning of weaker third-quarter earnings due to the housing and lending woes of the United Kingdom.

On the TSX, declines beat advances 852 to 696 with 215 unchanged as 446.7 million shares traded worth $7.7 billion.

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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Roger Biduk - Bay Street Lower on U.S. Rescue Plan

Roger Biduk writes:

Stock markets drifted to a weak close Wednesday with nervous investors finding little reason to buy amid roadblocks to the Bush administration's US$700-billion rescue of the financial industry and Warren Buffett's investment in Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index was off 19.27 points to 12,513.36, while the Dow Jones industrial average shed 29 points to 10,825.17.

The TSX Venture Exchange was up 12.04 points to 1,550.64, while the Canadian dollar dipped 0.04 of a cent to 96.46 cents US.

The Toronto financial sector was flat. Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) declined 53 cents to $48.85, while Royal Bank (TSX:RY) was ahead 76 cents to $51.25. The Royal promoted Doug McGregor to chairman and co-CEO of RBC Capital Markets and Mark Standish to president and co-CEO of the division. They succeed Chuck Winograd, retiring at age 60 as chairman and CEO of the investment banking arm of Canada's largest bank.
AGF Management Ltd. (TSX:AGF.B) was down four cents to $19.96 after lower taxes helped boost summer-quarter profit by 4.3 per cent to $41.1 million, while stock market volatility hurt revenues.

The TSX energy sector was off 0.4 per cent as the November crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 88 cents to US$105.73 a barrel after earlier rising on data that showed an increase in American crude inventories last week.
EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) and partner ConocoPhillips said they are starting construction on a US$3.6-billion expansion at the Wood River refinery in Roxana, Ill. EnCana shares were 56 cents lower to $72.80.
Shares in Nexen Inc. (TSX:NXY) added 19 cents to $26.69 after it said full-year production will be "slightly" below previous guidance because of hurricane damage in the Gulf of Mexico.

The TSX gold sector rose 1.14 per cent as the December bullion contract in New York closed up $3.80 to US$895 an ounce. Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) ran ahead $1.15 to $39.95.

The consumer discretionary sector was also a drag with shares of auto parts giant Magna International Inc. (TSX:MG.A) down $2.39 to $59.25.

The industrials sector was down two per cent. Bombardier Inc. (TSX:BBD.B) shares were down 31 cents to $6.08 while shares of Canadian National Railways gave up $1.34 to $51.90.

On the TSX, declines beat advances 837 to 692 with 219 unchanged as 365.2 million shares traded worth $5.77 billion.

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Roger Biduk - Bay Street Lower on Commodities

Roger Biduk writes:

Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index came closed down 105.44 points at 12,532.63, after commodity stocks deteriorated. The TSX Venture Exchange was down 37.39 points to 1,538.6.

The Canadian dollar was down 0.27 of a cent to 96.5 cents US as investors took in a higher than expected reading on inflation for August.

Statistics Canada said Tuesday the annual rate of inflation hit 3.5 per cent, primarily because of higher costs for gasoline and oil. Core inflation rose to 1.7 per cent in August, from 1.5 per cent in July.

However, the TSX financial sector were up two per cent with CIBC (TSX:CM) ahead $1.80 to $62.27 while Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) advanced $1.57 to $49.38.
Investors also closely watched oil prices after anxiety over the bailout and a short-covering rally powered crude to its biggest-ever one-day rise Monday.

The TSX energy sector was off two per cent as the November crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange receded $2.76 to US$106.61. Sector heavyweight EnCana (TSX:ECA) was down 84 cents to $73.36 while Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SWU) fell $1.35 to $48.05.

The TSX gold sector moved down 3.5 per cent as the December bullion contract in New York backed off $17.80 to US$891.20 an ounce. Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) gave back 78 cents to $37.11 while Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) declined 81 cents to $38.80.

The base metals sector, which along with the energy sector has enjoyed some sharp recent gains on U.S. dollar weakness and a move into so-called hard assets, was also down 3.5 per cent with Teck Cominco Ltd. (TSX:TCK.B) losing $1.23 to $35.52 and HudBay Minerals (TSX:HBM) off 12 cents to $6.69.
Also dragging the TSX lower was Potash Corp. (TSX:POT), down $18.03 or 9.7 per cent to $167.80.

The Brookfield Residential Property Services division of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX:BAM.A) has agreed to buy GMAC Home Services, a U.S. provider of home financing, real estate brokerage and relocation services. The price was not disclosed and Brookfield Asset shares were off eight cents to $27.84.

On the TSX, declines beat advances 973 to 561 with 219 unchanged as 404.4 million shares traded worth $7.05 billion.

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Roger Biduk is an investment advisor and services clients in Montreal, Hudson, West Island and throughout the provinces of Quebec & Ontario.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Roger Biduk - Bay Street Lower on Financials

Roger Biduk writes:

A selloff in bank and insurance stocks helped push the Toronto stock market down sharply Monday while energy stocks failed to respond to a huge jump in crude prices.
The Toronto market was also buffeted by declines in industrial, tech and telecom stocks.

Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index fell 274.92 points to 12,638.07 keeping most of a 848-point surge on Friday. New York's Dow Jones industrial average lost 372.75 points to 11,015.69 after charging ahead 369 points Friday.

The energy sector lost 1.75 per cent even as the October crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged $16.37 to US$120.92 a barrel, after going as high as US$130 on its final day of trading. The November crude oil contract was up only $6.62to US$109.37.
The jump in oil came amid a weakening U.S. dollar as investors mulled over the final cost of the plan announced Friday by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to buy US$700 billion of toxic mortgage debt.

The TSX Venture Exchange moved up 26.77 points to 1,575.99 and the Canadian dollar was up 1.53 cent at 96.77 cents US as the American dollar moved lower against most major currencies amid worries about the inflationary impact of the financial-sector rescue.

In Toronto, the financial sector fell three per cent after big gains Friday. Royal Bank (TSX:RY) gave back $1.43 to $50 and Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) declined $2.19 to $47.81. Manulife Financial (TSX:MFC) moved down 87 cents to $36 following a report it is set to bid for parts of AIG. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (TSX:FFH) jumped $25 to $320 after it disclosed Monday that it has US$2.1 billion in realized and unrealized gains on credit default swaps.

The gold sector ran ahead 6.7 per cent as the December bullion contract in New York gained $44.30 to US$909 an ounce. Barrick Gold jumped $3.11 to $39.61 and Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) advanced $3.39 to $37.89.

Energy sector losers included Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ), down $2.84 to US$84.47 while EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) gave back $1.55 to $74.20. Tanganyika Oil (TSX:TYK) surged $6.30 or 36 per cent to $23.80 after it said it has entered into talks to sell the company.

Research In Motion Ltd. (TSX:RIM) was a drag on the TSX, losing $8.11 to $101.39.
The telecom sector was also down as Telus Corp. (TSX:T) shed $1.58 to $38.47.

The Toronto income trust sector closed lower, down 1.1 per cent, after the Liberals said they would roll back a looming tax on such trusts introduced by the Tories nearly two years ago.

Elsewhere, Angiotech Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TSX:ANP) shares were down 38 cents or 28per cent to 98 cents after it announced it is moving to cut costs and "further focus its business efforts," while disclosing that a previously announced capital injection of up to $300 million is in doubt.

On the TSX, declines beat advances 879 to 742 with 166 unchanged as 457 million shares traded worth $8.02 billion.

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Roger Biduk is an investment advisor and services clients in Montreal, Hudson, West Island and throughout the provinces of Quebec & Ontario.