Roger Biduk writes:
The Toronto Stock Exchange's main index was down almost 300 points Monday afternoon, rattled by the bankruptcy filing of Wall Street's Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc and worries over other big financial institutions.
The financial services sector, which accounts for about a quarter of the index's total weight, was down 1.2 percent - though up from earlier lows - with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce down 3.1 percent at C$62.19.
The Bank of Canada said on Monday it will provide liquidity as required to shore up financial markets spooked by the bankruptcy filing of Lehman and the sale of Merrill Lynch.
As well, Canada's banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, said the country's financial institutions are healthy and it has no plans for special measures to help banks cope with the world financial crisis.
By late Monday morning, the S&P/TSX composite index was down 293.02 points, or 2.288 percent, at 12,476.56, with nine of its 10 main groups lower. Earlier in the session the benchmark index had shed more than 3 percent.
The heavyweight energy sector dropped 3 percent as oil prices fell to around $97 a barrel on worries over lower U.S. demand and signs that Hurricane Ike had spared key U.S. energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian Natural Resources fell 4.5 percent to C$79.50.
The materials sector fell 1.3 percent as concerns over the fallout from the U.S. credit crisis overcame a rise in gold prices, which climbed on safe-haven buying.
Consumer staples was the only group in positive territory, managing to eke out a 0.2 percent gain.
Roger's Website
Roger's Investment Blog on the U.S. Markets
Roger services clients in Montreal, West Island, Hudson and the province of Ontario.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Roger Biduk - BAC Buys MER, US$ Drops, Metals Rise
Roger Biduk writes:
One big news story tomorrow will be the purchase of Merrill Lynch (MER) by Bank of America BAC).
You can read more about it here on my U.S. blog.
Another will be the bankruptcy of Lehman Bros. (LEH) if that happens. It hasn't yet as there still might be some kind of last-minute deal before midnight but it doesn't look good.
Currently, gold is up $22.50 or 2.94 and silver is up 4%. That should bode well for the gold stocks I mentioned in last Thursday's blog that were all up huge on Friday.
If Lehman does go under the US$ should drop and there should be a nice rise in gold.
Oil is down 2%, breaking the $100 mark to $99.39.
Roger Biduk's website
Roger Biduk's blog on the U.S. markets
rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
One big news story tomorrow will be the purchase of Merrill Lynch (MER) by Bank of America BAC).
You can read more about it here on my U.S. blog.
Another will be the bankruptcy of Lehman Bros. (LEH) if that happens. It hasn't yet as there still might be some kind of last-minute deal before midnight but it doesn't look good.
Currently, gold is up $22.50 or 2.94 and silver is up 4%. That should bode well for the gold stocks I mentioned in last Thursday's blog that were all up huge on Friday.
If Lehman does go under the US$ should drop and there should be a nice rise in gold.
Oil is down 2%, breaking the $100 mark to $99.39.
Roger Biduk's website
Roger Biduk's blog on the U.S. markets
rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
Roger Biduk - Gold Stocks Mentioned in Thursday's Blog Soaring
Roger Biduk writes:
As I wrote in Thursday's blog (see below), gold stocks were due for a rally as the price of gold had a huge drop after nine days in a row of declines.
Well, the gold stocks I mentioned had huge one-day gains on Friday: G +14.49%, YRI + 10.97%, K +10.88%, ABX +9.73%, ELD +6.31%, HBU +6.06% and HMB +3.75.
You'll get this type of action (especially in the commodity markets) after there's been huge losses or gains over a sustained period of time.
The risk reward on the trades above were definitely favorable, even though there are people out there talking about $500 gold coming up.
Only several months ago, I heard $2000 being thrown about....where are these people now?
Roger's Website
Roger's Investing Blog on the American Markets
As I wrote in Thursday's blog (see below), gold stocks were due for a rally as the price of gold had a huge drop after nine days in a row of declines.
Well, the gold stocks I mentioned had huge one-day gains on Friday: G +14.49%, YRI + 10.97%, K +10.88%, ABX +9.73%, ELD +6.31%, HBU +6.06% and HMB +3.75.
You'll get this type of action (especially in the commodity markets) after there's been huge losses or gains over a sustained period of time.
The risk reward on the trades above were definitely favorable, even though there are people out there talking about $500 gold coming up.
Only several months ago, I heard $2000 being thrown about....where are these people now?
Roger's Website
Roger's Investing Blog on the American Markets
Friday, September 12, 2008
Roger Biduk - "After the Bell" - TSX Higher, Gold Glitters
Roger Biduk writes:
The Toronto Stock Exchange ended the day in positive territory Friday after a volatile week of trading on uncertain oil prices and jitters about the future of the U.S. financial industry.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index rose 156.82 points to 12,769.58.
The Canadian dollar closed at 94.24 cents US Friday, up 1.35 cents, after hitting a 13-month low on Thursday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude for October delivery rose 31 cents to settle at $101.18 a barrel, after briefly sinking to $99.99 as refineries in the Gulf of Mexico battened down the hatches over concern about the impact of hurricane Ike.
Crude oil on the futures market briefly sank below the psychologically important US$100-a-barrel mark for the first time since April 2 - showing that investors believe a worsening global economy will continue to drive down demand for some time in the United States and elsewhere.
In the past weeks, falling crude prices have driven down Canada's main stock index, which is heavily weighted to oil, gas and commodity companies, as higher prices contribute to demand destruction.
Shares in EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) rose 87 cents to $71.69 as the energy sector ended the day up two per cent Friday.
The TSX Venture Exchange was up 43.71 points at 1,607.53.
On the TSX, the financial and information technology sectors created the biggest drag, each falling more than one per cent.
TD Bank (TSX:TD) stock was off by 56 cents to $62.29 while Research in Motion (TSX:RIM) was down 4.7 per cent at $112.36.
The gold sector rose more than nine per cent as the December bullion contract on the Nymex rose $19 to US$764.50 an ounce and Goldcorp (TSX:G) rose 14.5 per cent to $31.36.
In other news, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said a re-elected Conservative government would make it easier for foreign companies to buy parts of Canadian firms.
The Tories would also increase the allowed level of foreign investment in airlines to 49 per cent from the current 25, and allow foreign companies to own Canadian uranium mines.
Shares in Cameco (TSX:CCO) were up 38 cents to $27.25.
Boralex Power Income Fund (TSX:BPT.UN), a Montreal-based electricity generator, said its decision to temporarily halt its wood-residue thermal power stations at Senneterre and Dolbeau in Quebec won't affect its current rate of distributions at 70 cents per year. Its stock closed at $4.18, up three per cent.
www.rogerbiduk.ca
rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
www.rogerbiduk.wordpress.com
The Toronto Stock Exchange ended the day in positive territory Friday after a volatile week of trading on uncertain oil prices and jitters about the future of the U.S. financial industry.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index rose 156.82 points to 12,769.58.
The Canadian dollar closed at 94.24 cents US Friday, up 1.35 cents, after hitting a 13-month low on Thursday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude for October delivery rose 31 cents to settle at $101.18 a barrel, after briefly sinking to $99.99 as refineries in the Gulf of Mexico battened down the hatches over concern about the impact of hurricane Ike.
Crude oil on the futures market briefly sank below the psychologically important US$100-a-barrel mark for the first time since April 2 - showing that investors believe a worsening global economy will continue to drive down demand for some time in the United States and elsewhere.
In the past weeks, falling crude prices have driven down Canada's main stock index, which is heavily weighted to oil, gas and commodity companies, as higher prices contribute to demand destruction.
Shares in EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) rose 87 cents to $71.69 as the energy sector ended the day up two per cent Friday.
The TSX Venture Exchange was up 43.71 points at 1,607.53.
On the TSX, the financial and information technology sectors created the biggest drag, each falling more than one per cent.
TD Bank (TSX:TD) stock was off by 56 cents to $62.29 while Research in Motion (TSX:RIM) was down 4.7 per cent at $112.36.
The gold sector rose more than nine per cent as the December bullion contract on the Nymex rose $19 to US$764.50 an ounce and Goldcorp (TSX:G) rose 14.5 per cent to $31.36.
In other news, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said a re-elected Conservative government would make it easier for foreign companies to buy parts of Canadian firms.
The Tories would also increase the allowed level of foreign investment in airlines to 49 per cent from the current 25, and allow foreign companies to own Canadian uranium mines.
Shares in Cameco (TSX:CCO) were up 38 cents to $27.25.
Boralex Power Income Fund (TSX:BPT.UN), a Montreal-based electricity generator, said its decision to temporarily halt its wood-residue thermal power stations at Senneterre and Dolbeau in Quebec won't affect its current rate of distributions at 70 cents per year. Its stock closed at $4.18, up three per cent.
www.rogerbiduk.ca
rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
www.rogerbiduk.wordpress.com
Roger Biduk - "Before the Bell" - Futures Pointing to a Lower Open on Wall Street
Roger Biduk writes:
FUTURES POINTING TO A LOWER OPEN ON WALL STREET
U.S. stock futures pointed to a weaker start Friday after an unexpected drop in retail sales, with markets on edge over the fate of Lehman Brothers Holdings, the brokerage believed to be in its last hours of independence.
December-dated S&P 500 futures fell 7.6 points to 1,244.40 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 6.5 points to 1,775.25. Dow industrial futures fell 63 points.
U.S. stocks saw a manic Thursday, with steep early losses ending in a sizeable advance as speculation that Lehman Brothers wouldn't survive was countered by talk that the investment bank is in talks for a federal government-chaperoned buyout. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 164 points, the S&P 500 added 17 points and the Nasdaq Composite rose 29 points.
U.S. retail sales unexpected fell in August, pushed lower by plunging gasoline prices, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. Seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.3% in August, much worse than the 0.4% gain expected by economists. Sales in June and July were also revised lower by a total of 0.6 percentage points.
Also, U.S. producer prices fell a steeper than expected 0.9% in August, the Labor Department reported Friday, helped by lower energy costs. The decline follows on the heels of a sharp 1.2% gain in July. Excluding food and energy, "core" producer prices rose 0.2% last month.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for September is due out shortly after the open of trade.
The US$ still rose against the British pound and the euro with currency market attention more on Lehman Brothers. Oil futures added 64 cents to $101.51 a barrel.
Attention on Friday turns to which firm is likely to end up with Lehman (LEH)
assets. Bank of America (BAC) was Lehman's "best hope," according to an article in The Wall Street Journal. Britain's Barclays (BCS), which like Lehman is active in debt-market financing, has also been named as a possible suitor.
In pre-open deals, Lehman shares dropped 12.8%.
Merrill Lynch (MER) fell 16% on Thursday on fears that it will be the next domino to fall. Merrill shares lost a further 6% in pre-market trade.
Meanwhile, Washington Mutual (WM) late on Thursday gave a financial update, saying it's well capitalized and that provision for loan losses will drop to roughly $4.5 billion from $5.9 in the second quarter. Retail deposits were "essentially unchanged" at the end of August from year-earlier levels.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Washington Mutual to neutral from sell, saying the lender's capital is absorbing pain, but Moody's Investors Service cut its credit rating to below investment grade.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares lost 12% on a warning over third-quarter earnings, which it now expects to fall.
Overseas markets were generally stronger, with the FTSE 100 up 0.9% in London and the Nikkei 225 up 0.9% in Tokyo.
www.rogerbiduk.ca
www.rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
Visit my Investment Blog on the Canadian Markets at www.rogerbiduk.wordpress.com
FUTURES POINTING TO A LOWER OPEN ON WALL STREET
U.S. stock futures pointed to a weaker start Friday after an unexpected drop in retail sales, with markets on edge over the fate of Lehman Brothers Holdings, the brokerage believed to be in its last hours of independence.
December-dated S&P 500 futures fell 7.6 points to 1,244.40 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 6.5 points to 1,775.25. Dow industrial futures fell 63 points.
U.S. stocks saw a manic Thursday, with steep early losses ending in a sizeable advance as speculation that Lehman Brothers wouldn't survive was countered by talk that the investment bank is in talks for a federal government-chaperoned buyout. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 164 points, the S&P 500 added 17 points and the Nasdaq Composite rose 29 points.
U.S. retail sales unexpected fell in August, pushed lower by plunging gasoline prices, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. Seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.3% in August, much worse than the 0.4% gain expected by economists. Sales in June and July were also revised lower by a total of 0.6 percentage points.
Also, U.S. producer prices fell a steeper than expected 0.9% in August, the Labor Department reported Friday, helped by lower energy costs. The decline follows on the heels of a sharp 1.2% gain in July. Excluding food and energy, "core" producer prices rose 0.2% last month.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for September is due out shortly after the open of trade.
The US$ still rose against the British pound and the euro with currency market attention more on Lehman Brothers. Oil futures added 64 cents to $101.51 a barrel.
Attention on Friday turns to which firm is likely to end up with Lehman (LEH)
assets. Bank of America (BAC) was Lehman's "best hope," according to an article in The Wall Street Journal. Britain's Barclays (BCS), which like Lehman is active in debt-market financing, has also been named as a possible suitor.
In pre-open deals, Lehman shares dropped 12.8%.
Merrill Lynch (MER) fell 16% on Thursday on fears that it will be the next domino to fall. Merrill shares lost a further 6% in pre-market trade.
Meanwhile, Washington Mutual (WM) late on Thursday gave a financial update, saying it's well capitalized and that provision for loan losses will drop to roughly $4.5 billion from $5.9 in the second quarter. Retail deposits were "essentially unchanged" at the end of August from year-earlier levels.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Washington Mutual to neutral from sell, saying the lender's capital is absorbing pain, but Moody's Investors Service cut its credit rating to below investment grade.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares lost 12% on a warning over third-quarter earnings, which it now expects to fall.
Overseas markets were generally stronger, with the FTSE 100 up 0.9% in London and the Nikkei 225 up 0.9% in Tokyo.
www.rogerbiduk.ca
www.rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
Visit my Investment Blog on the Canadian Markets at www.rogerbiduk.wordpress.com
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Roger Biduk - TSX Higher, Gold Tanks Again
Roger Biduk writes:
Goldbugs I've been speaking to are getting kind on antsy....gold's down 10 days in a row.
Time for me to look a few gold stocks for a short trade. HBU, YRI, K, G, ELD, ABX & HBM are the ones I'll look at.
The Toronto stock market ended the day higher after launching a fervent battle against deeper losses tied to uncertain oil prices, lower gold and a beaten down U.S. financial sector.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index closed up 115.61 points to 12,612.76 on Thursday after losing as much as 121 points earlier in the day.
The CDN$ was at 92.89 cents US, down 0.59 of a cent.
Falling crude prices have been a significant factor in driving down Canada's major stock market, which is heavily weighted to oil, gas and commodity companies.
The energy sector rose 1.5 per cent as oil prices slipped lower despite hurricane Ike's march toward oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
The October futures contract for light, sweet crude slid $1.71 to end at US$100.87 a barrel on the Nymex, its lowest close since April.
Fears of a global economic slowdown have been offsetting concerns about whether hurricane Ike could harm refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico, falling U.S. crude inventories and an OPEC decision to cut production by 500,000 barrels a day.
Ike, coming on the heels of last week's hurricane Gustav, was expected to blow ashore early Saturday somewhere in Texas between Corpus Christi and Houston, with some forecasts saying it could become a Category 4 storm.
Jennifer Dowty, a portfolio manager at MFC Global Investment Management said that she doesn't think crude prices will come anywhere close to US$80 a barrel - a benchmark used by many oil producers when planning their businesses.
"Because it's had such an aggressive pullback, we're going to see a reflex rally which could take it back up to $110 in the near term," she said.
Leading the TSX was the technology sector which climbed 2.5 per cent as Research in Motion (TSX: RIM.TO) rose $5.08 to $117.44. The company announced earlier in the day that it had inked a deal with Microsoft Corp. to carry its web search engine on BlackBerry mobile devices.
The gold sector lost 1.5 per cent, as the December bullion contract on the Nymex fell $17 to close at US$745.50 an ounce, marking its longest streak of losing sessions in eight years.
The TSX financial sector was up 0.5 per cent, and the TSX Venture Exchange ended 32.91 points lower to 1,563.82.
www.rogerbiduk.ca
rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
Goldbugs I've been speaking to are getting kind on antsy....gold's down 10 days in a row.
Time for me to look a few gold stocks for a short trade. HBU, YRI, K, G, ELD, ABX & HBM are the ones I'll look at.
The Toronto stock market ended the day higher after launching a fervent battle against deeper losses tied to uncertain oil prices, lower gold and a beaten down U.S. financial sector.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index closed up 115.61 points to 12,612.76 on Thursday after losing as much as 121 points earlier in the day.
The CDN$ was at 92.89 cents US, down 0.59 of a cent.
Falling crude prices have been a significant factor in driving down Canada's major stock market, which is heavily weighted to oil, gas and commodity companies.
The energy sector rose 1.5 per cent as oil prices slipped lower despite hurricane Ike's march toward oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
The October futures contract for light, sweet crude slid $1.71 to end at US$100.87 a barrel on the Nymex, its lowest close since April.
Fears of a global economic slowdown have been offsetting concerns about whether hurricane Ike could harm refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico, falling U.S. crude inventories and an OPEC decision to cut production by 500,000 barrels a day.
Ike, coming on the heels of last week's hurricane Gustav, was expected to blow ashore early Saturday somewhere in Texas between Corpus Christi and Houston, with some forecasts saying it could become a Category 4 storm.
Jennifer Dowty, a portfolio manager at MFC Global Investment Management said that she doesn't think crude prices will come anywhere close to US$80 a barrel - a benchmark used by many oil producers when planning their businesses.
"Because it's had such an aggressive pullback, we're going to see a reflex rally which could take it back up to $110 in the near term," she said.
Leading the TSX was the technology sector which climbed 2.5 per cent as Research in Motion (TSX: RIM.TO) rose $5.08 to $117.44. The company announced earlier in the day that it had inked a deal with Microsoft Corp. to carry its web search engine on BlackBerry mobile devices.
The gold sector lost 1.5 per cent, as the December bullion contract on the Nymex fell $17 to close at US$745.50 an ounce, marking its longest streak of losing sessions in eight years.
The TSX financial sector was up 0.5 per cent, and the TSX Venture Exchange ended 32.91 points lower to 1,563.82.
www.rogerbiduk.ca
rogerbiduk@rogerbiduk.ca
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Roger Biduk - TSX tanks almost 500 points...
Roger Biduk writes:
Where are those analysts that only a couple of months ago were predicting that oil was going to $200 and gold to $2000?
The slide on the Toronto market was led by a 6.4 per cent drop in the energy sector as oil moved closer to the US$100 a barrel level.
The October crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.08 to US$103.26 a barrel as hurricane Ike appeared less likely to strike Gulf of Mexico energy installations and Saudi Arabia suggested OPEC will not cut output.
The gold sector fell 8.8 per cent as the December bullion contract on the Nymex fell $10.50 to US$792 an ounce.
Where are those analysts that only a couple of months ago were predicting that oil was going to $200 and gold to $2000?
The slide on the Toronto market was led by a 6.4 per cent drop in the energy sector as oil moved closer to the US$100 a barrel level.
The October crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.08 to US$103.26 a barrel as hurricane Ike appeared less likely to strike Gulf of Mexico energy installations and Saudi Arabia suggested OPEC will not cut output.
The gold sector fell 8.8 per cent as the December bullion contract on the Nymex fell $10.50 to US$792 an ounce.
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