Saturday, September 19, 2009

Roger Biduk; Bay Street Lower on Gold & Oil

Roger Biduk

Sliding gold and energy stocks led the way to a sharp loss on the Toronto stock market Friday, but the main index racked up gains for the week as investors grew more confident about an economic recovery.

The S&P/TSX composite index fell 82.28 points to 11,445.95 gaining 192.72 points or 1.71 per cent this week, led by rising energy and financial stocks.
The TSX Venture Exchange was up 9.06 points to 1,281.8.

A pickup in U.S. dollar strength sent the Canadian dollar down 0.26 of a cent to 93.48 cents U.S.

The gold sector led decliners, down 1.67 per cent as the December bullion contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange drifted $3.20 lower to US$1,010.30 an ounce. On the TSX, Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) faded 98 cents to $43.99.

Roger Biduk
The energy sector was off 1.45 per cent as the October crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange slid 43 cents to US$72.04 a barrel. On the TSX, EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) gave back $1.54 to $61.39.
Crude was up almost US$3 on the week, on hopes that the United States, the biggest oil consumer, is on the road to recovery. Still, the recession has sapped American fuel consumption, and U.S. oil stockpiles are 14 per cent larger than last year.

In economic news, Statistics Canada reported wholesale sales increased 2.8 per cent in July, mainly as a result of higher sales in the auto sector.

Elsewhere on the TSX, Canadian Pacific Railways (TSX:CP) paced a 1.27 per cent decline in the industrials sector, down $1.07 to $52.44 after analyst John Larkin of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. cut his rating on the railroad to "sell" from "hold", saying CPR's fundamentals haven't improved enough to justify its 37 per cent increase in share price since July 10.
Elsewhere in the sector, Bombardier Inc. (TSX:BBD.B) lost 13 cents to $4.66 as it announced its rail division has received an order for 30 tram trains, which will be manufactured in Germany and Austria. The order is valued at euro129 million (US$190 million) not counting an option for 45 additional vehicles.

The base metals sector was flat even as December copper closed down 11.1 cents to US$2.785 a pound.

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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Roger Biduk; Bay Street Tanks

Roger Biduk

All 11 indices I follow on the TSX were lower today.

Is reality finally setting in?
I believe along with many prominent analysts that there’s lots more to go on the downside.
Markets have been going up and the news over the last two years in the U.S. regarding employment and housing has only been getting worse.

The Toronto stock market joined other indexes around the world in a sharp selloff Monday as investors sold off across all sectors on worries that the American consumer won't be much help in building a strong economic recovery.

The S&P/TSX composite index fell 316.42 points or 2.92 per cent to 10,531.59 with losses paced by a drop of more than three per cent in the energy sector as crude prices fell back on demand concerns.
The CDN$ closed down 0.61 cent to 90.32 cents U.S. after falling almost a cent on Friday while the TSX Venture Exchange backed off 33.60 points to 1,159.82.

Roger Biduk
ETFs that jumped to the upside today include:
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Mining (HMD) +9.47% to $5.20. Horizons BetaPro MSCI Emerging Markets (HJD) +8.18% to $5.42. Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold bear Plus (HGD) +7.65% to $7.18. Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear Plus (HXD) +5.58% to $15.90. Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Cap Energy Bear Plus (HED) +5.58% to $8.33. Horizons BetaPro NASDAQ-100 Bear Plus (HQD) +5.24% to $18.68.

The April crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.13% to $66.75 and natural gas fell 2.28% to $3.56 as the S&P/TSX Energy Index fell 3.27%.
AltaGas Utility Group Inc. (AUI) +43.04% to $8.94.
Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU) -7.14% to $7.15. Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. (PRE.WT)
-6.20% to $5.90. Major Drilling Group Internati (MDI) -6.09% to $22.82. Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) -5.84% to $10.48. Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW) -5.60% to $10.29.
EnCana Corp. (TSX: ECA.TO) dropped $1.52 to $55.04 while Suncor Inc. (TSX: SU.TO) lost $1.43 to $34.41.

Evidence of weakness on the consumer front surfaced Friday in a sharp falloff in the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which followed a surprisingly weak July retail sales report.

Roger Biduk
The S&P/TSX Capped Health Care Index was lower by 0.35%.
Shares pharmaceutical company Aeterna Zentaris Inc. (TSX: AEZ.TO) tumbled more than 60 per cent Monday after it said it has hit a snag in the development of its treatment for prostate problems. Its shares fell $1.90 to $1.21.

Economic concerns also forced down other commodity prices as the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index fell 3.68% as the April bullion contract in New York tanked $12.90 to US$935.80 an ounce.
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (KGI) -9.97% to $8.67. European Goldfields Limited (EGU) -6.82% to $3.28. Richmont Mines Inc. (RIC) -6.15% to $3.05. Lake Shore Gold Corp. (LSG) -6.07% to $3.25. Kinross Gold Corporation K. (WT.C) -5.91% to $3.98.
Goldcorp Inc. (TSX: G.TO) was down $1.31 to $37.70.

Other commodities dropped as the S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index sank 4.74% as aluminum rose .85%, copper was 2.30% lower at $2.05 and silver sank 5.07% to $13.98.
Athabasca Potash Inc. (API) -15.54% to $5.49. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAA) -9.91% to $20.28. Quadra Mining Ltd. (QUA) -8.91% to $11.14. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM) -8.02% to $3.44. Western Areas NL (WSA) -7.08% to $5.25.
Teck Resources (TSX: TCK-B.TO) lost $1.08 to $27.92 while HudBay Minerals (TSX: HBM.TO) was 31 cents lower to $8.54.
Shares in fertilizer giant Agrium Inc. (TSX: AGU.TO) were down $2.55 to $50.70 after it said Monday it is extending the expiry date of its hostile takeover bid for U.S.-based CF Industries Holdings Inc.
The $4.26-billion deal, which offers US$40 in cash plus one Agrium share for each CF share, will now expire on Sept. 22.
Potash Corp. (TSX: POT.TO) fell $4.79 to $100.71.

Roger Biduk
The S&P/TSX Capped Financial Index fell 2.63%.
Savanna Energy Services Corp. (SVY) -7.44% to $5.10. Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Inco (LIF.UN) -7.37% 35.57. Sentry Select Primary Metals C (PME) -6.78% to $5.36. Canaccord Capital Inc. (CCI) -6.67% to $9.24. DundeeWealth Inc. (DW) -6.19% to $10.45.
Royal Bank (TSX: RY.TO) declined $1.26 to $50.10 while Manulife Financial (TSX: MFC.TO) lost 76 cents to $21.57.

The S&P/TSX Capped Telecom Services Index was 1.93% lower and the S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index fell 2.26%.
5N Plus Inc. (VNP) -7.00% to $5.58. Torstar Corporation (TS.B) -5.87% to $5.93. DragonWave Inc. (DW) -5.71% to $6.27.
Research In Motion Ltd. (TSX: RIM.TO) was down $2.19 to $78.10 as American business magazine Fortune named the BlackBerry-maker the world's fastest-growing company.

In other earnings news, high-hazard protective equipment maker Allen-Vanguard Corp. (TSX: VRS.TO) said Monday impairment charges contributed to widening losses in the third quarter while a delay of some U.S. programs led to revenue levels that fell short of expectations. The company turned in a net loss of $99.2 million for the quarter ended June 30, almost tripling year-earlier losses of $36.6 million. Its shares inched up half a cent to 12.5 cents.

Roger Biduk
In the service sector:
AutoCanada Income Fund (ACQ.UN) +12.71% to $3.37.
ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. (ACE.A) -7.19% to $4.39. Canadian Pacific Railway Limit (CP)
-5.47% to $50.10. New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI.UN) -5.87% to $8.18.

The S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index was down 3.41%.
Newalta Inc. (NAL) +11.04% to $7.04.
Canfor Corporation (CFP) -10.17% to $5.21. West Fraser Timber Co Ltd. (WFT) -7.85% to $26.18. TimberWest Forest Corp. (TWF.UN) -7.43% to $3.49. Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc (RME) -6.06% to $6.20. Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B) -5.35% to $4.07.

The S&P/TSX Consumer Discretionary Index was 2.24% lower and the S&P/TSX Consumer Staples Index fell 1.03%.

The S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index fell 1.63%.

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Monday, August 17, 2009

Roger Biduk; Bay Street Lower for Week

Roger Biduk:
The Toronto stock market closed slightly higher Friday - but lost ground on the week - following a second glum dose of U.S. economic data that raised doubt about how much the American consumer can participate in the recovery.

The S&P/TSX composite index finished off the lows of the session as early losses in the financial sector disappeared and energy sector declines moderated despite a steep drop in crude prices.

The index came back from a 112-point deficit to close 22.45 points higher to 10,848.01 after the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for August came in at 63.2. That was much worse than the 69 reading that economists had expected and down from 66 posted in July.
The consumer report on Friday came a day after other data showed that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly dropped last month.
The TSX Venture Exchange slipped 7.08 points to 1,193.42.
The Canadian dollar gave up early momentum to move down 0.9 of a cent to 90.93 cents US.

Roger Biduk
The economic news was better in Canada as manufacturing sales increased 1.9 per cent to $39.7 billion in June, a much better showing than the 0.3 per cent dip that economists had expected.
However, Statistics Canada said that strong sales in the aerospace industry and a rise in the price of petroleum and coal products largely explain the increase. Excluding both industries, Canada's manufacturing sales would have decreased 0.5 per cent.

The TSX energy sector was off 0.48 per cent Friday as the September crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange gave up early advances following the release of the consumer sentiment data to tumble $3.01 to US$67.51 a barrel. Suncor Inc. (TSX:SU) dropped 61 cents to $35.84 and EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA) moved down 60 cents to $56.56.

The TSX financial sector was up 0.48 per cent after the Irish Times reported Friday that a major Canadian bank has proposed to take a stake in Allied Irish Banks. It said that the investment would take place only after AIB's development loans move to NAMA, the National Asset Management Agency, which is being established by the Irish government to take over toxic development loans to developers.
Both CIBC (TSX:CM) and Royal Bank (TSX:RY) were mentioned as the interested buyer of a minority stake in the Irish bank, which confirmed it received interest from an unidentified third party.
But AIB said the discussions were "preliminary and are not expected to progress in the near term." Royal shares gained 65 cents to $51.36 and CIBC declined 31 cents to $67.75.

Roger Biduk
The base metals sector dropped 0.88 per cent as September copper fell back 7.8 cents to $US2.836 a pound. Teck Resources (TSX:TCK.B) was down 80 cents to $29 while Sherritt International (TSX:S) lost 11 cents to $7.33.

The December bullion contract was down $7.80 to $948.70 an ounce, taking the gold sector down 0.56 per cent. Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) faded 51 cents to $39.01.

A burst in the consumer discretionary sector was led by another strong showing in t-shirt maker Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL). Its shares ran up $1.93 or 9.78 per cent to $21.66 after advancing almost 10 per cent Thursday as it said quarterly profits fell 24 per cent - but delivered an optimistic outlook.

A major decliner in Toronto was Chartwell Seniors Housing Real Estate Investment Trust(TSX:CSH.UN). Its units tumbled $1.07 or 16.2 per cent to $5.54 after the company cut its monthly cash distributions to unitholders on Thursday in a bid to preserve its cash. It said that "given the uncertain economic climate in North America management believes that recovery and growth in certain markets may take longer than previously anticipated."

On the earnings front, high priced teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch said Friday that slumping sales led to a loss of $26.7 million, compared with a profit of $77.8 million a year earlier. However, its shares ran ahead $1.29 to US$34.25.
FNX Mining Co. Inc. (TSX:FNX) reported second-quarter profits of C$12.5 million, up from year-earlier net earnings of $11.3 million. Revenue was down 45 per cent to $61.9 million and its shares rose 51 cents to $9.88. Linamar Corp. (TSX:LNR) saw a $48.4-million loss in the second quarter, but the auto parts company said it well positioned for a turnaround with hundreds of millions of dollars in new business set to begin production this year. Its shares fell 74 cents to $12.35.

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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Roger Biduk - Bay Street Lower on Financials

Roger Biduk
The Toronto stock market tumbled as investors took profits from the five-month-old rally following a warning about the financial sector's health and ahead of Wednesday's interest rate announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The S&P/TSX Capped Financial Index fell 2.60%.
Royal Host Real Estate Investment (RYL.UN) -9.02% to $2.42. Melcor Developments Ltd. (MRD) -7.11% to $8.10. Plutonic Power Corporation (PCC) -6.85% to $2.99. H & R Real Estate Investment T (HR.UN)
-5.22% to $13.06. Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF)
-5.20% to $31.57.

Financial sector losses picked up following comments from U.S. analyst Richard Bove of Rochdale Securities, who said that U.S. bank earnings are unlikely to improve in the second half and that many firms may post losses. He said investors should lock in profits after a surge in bank stocks since early March.
Also, U.S. bank CIT Group warned of "substantial doubt" regarding its ability to continue as a going concern, due to "on-going stress in the credit markets, operating losses, credit ratings downgrades, and regulatory and cash restrictions."

S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index fell .90% as aluminum fell 1.45%, copper was 1.23% lower at $2.05 and silver was flat at $14.35.
Osisko Mining Corporation (OSK) +6.39% to $7.49.
Migao Corporation (MGO) -10.42% to $6.96. Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCM.WT)
-8.19% to $6.95.

Roger Biduk
The S&P/TSX composite index dropped 164.2 points to 10,629.47. The TSX loss followed a 92-point slide Monday. However, the Toronto market is still ahead more than 40 per cent since the start of the rally in early March, reflecting general optimism that the economy is recovering.
The TSX Venture Exchange declined 8.37 points to 1,176.84.

The S&P/TSX Capped Telecom Services Index was .14% higher and the S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index fell 0.26%.
SXC Health Solutions Corp. (SXC) +7.52% to $44.19.

The CDN$ closed down 1.06 cents to 90.79 cents US as the American dollar continued to rally in the wake of Friday's much better than expected jobless report for last month.

The April crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.63% to $69.45 and natural gas fell 2.75% to $3.54 as the S&P/TSX Energy Index fell 1.67%.

The S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index was down 0.91%.
Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc (RME) +13.33% to $5.10.
Bombardier Aerospace (TSX:BBD.B) shares were down 27 cents to $4.06 after the company cancelled an order from Italy's My Air for 15 of its CRJ1000 aircraft as the carrier faces an "uncertain situation." Italy's civil aviation authority suspended My Air's licence last month due to financial troubles at the airline.


Roger Biduk
In the Service sector:
Great Canadian Gaming Corporation (GC) +14.02% to $6.83.

On the Canadian economic front, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts decreased to 132,100 units in July from 137,800 units in June, mainly because of weakness in the multiple starts segment.

The S&P/TSX Consumer Discretionary Index was 1.34% lower and the S&P/TSX Consumer Staples Index fell 0.83%.
Cascades Inc. (CAS) +9.43% to $5.80. ZCL Composites Inc. (ZCL) +5.26% to $4.00.

In earnings news, hardware and home improvement retailer Rona Inc. (TSX:RON) says a drop in housing starts led to a seven per cent dip in second-quarter sales and a reduction in profits for the period. Rona booked profits of $60.8 million, down from $76.6 million a year ago and its shares added two cents to $14.35.
Shares in Leon's Furniture Ltd. (TSX:LNF) rose five cents to $10.10 after the Toronto-based retailer said its profit last quarter was $8.62 million, 26 per cent lower than the same time last year. Total sales including franchise stores fell to $209.9 million from $224.7 million, a decline of $14.7 million.

Roger Biduk
The S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index fell 0.51%.

Tissue maker and cardboard producer Cascades Inc. (TSX:CAS) said Tuesday it turned a profit of $30 million during the second quarter despite a modest dip in sales. The showing reversed a year-earlier loss of $25 million and its shares jumped 50 cents to $5.80.

The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index fell .20% as the April bullion contract in New York gained $.70 to US$947.60 an ounce.

After the market closed, Brookfield Asset Management (TSX:BAM.A) and Brookfield Properties (TSX:BPO) announced a plan to form a $4-billion consortium with other institutional investors to invest in under-performing real estate in several regions of the world.
Brookfield has allocated $1 billion to the consortium with opportunities in the office sector being funded by Brookfield Properties and opportunities in other sectors being funded by Brookfield Asset Management.

The S&P/TSX Capped Health Care Index was higher by 0.77%.
Paladin Labs Inc. (PLB) -6.81% to $17.94.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Roger Biduk, Bay Street Starting to Show Cracks

Roger Biduk

Stock markets surrendered big gains and put in a weak close Thursday after U.S. President Barack Obama confirmed that Chrysler LLC is going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
While the move wasn't a surprise, it did undermine optimism that the recession is nearing a bottom.
By the way, if any of you think this recession is at the bottom like many rah-rah analysts on television on CNBC, I think you and your portfolios are in for a big surprise (refer to my email I sent in the wee hours on Apr. 27).

The S&P/TSX Capped Financial Index fell 0.51%.
Algonquin Power Income Fund (APF.UN) +7.69% to $3.08. Melcor Developments Ltd. (MRD) +7.95% to $5.70.
Jovian Cap Corp (JOV) -13.33% to $6.50. Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS.UN -6.31% to $24.64. RioCan Real Estate Investment (REI.UN) -5.26% to $$13.68.

Markets had been trying to factor in the likelihood of a Chrysler insolvency but "once investors become face-to-face with that reality, they have a different reaction," commented Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in New York.
Just wait till GM goes belly-up next month!

Roger Biduk
S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index rose 1.98% as aluminum rose 1.52%, copper was 2.12% higher at $2.05 and silver dropped 3.52% to $12.33.
Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCM.WT) +8.26% to $2.49. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM) +6.68% to $46.15. Gerdau AmeriSteel Corporation (GNA) +6.26% to $6.28. Capstone Mining Corp. (CS) +5.82% to $2.00.
Uranium One Inc. (UUU) -7.04% to $3.30. Silvercorp Metals Inc.(SVM) -6.10% to $2.77. Red Back Mining Inc.(RBI) -5.28% to $8.26.

Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index came down from a 152-point surge and ended the day with a loss of 91.48 points at 9,324.83.
The TSX Venture Exchange was down 4.99 points to 1,008.98.

The April crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.30% to $50.96 and natural gas fell 0.88% to $3.38 as the S&P/TSX Energy Index fell 1.59%.
Orleans Energy Ltd. (OEX) +13.83% to $2.14.
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW) -5.14% to $9.60. Peyto Energy Trust (PEY.UN) -5.23% to $9.06.

The Canadian dollar moved up 0.69 cent to 83.82 cents US after Statistics Canada said the economy shrank 0.1 per cent in February - much less painful than the 0.7 per cent slide in January and better than the 0.2 per cent contraction economists were projecting.

Roger Biduk
The S&P/TSX Capped Telecom Services Index was 1.23% lower and the S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index rose 0.56%.
Torstar Corporation (TS.B) -5.46% to $5.02.
SXC Health Solutions Corp. (SXC) +9.31% to $23.72. 5N Plus Inc. (VNP) +8.69% to $6.38. DragonWave Inc. (DWI) +5.65% to $2.62.

Stats Canada also noted that economic activity has declined 2.4 per cent since October,
Following an incredibly intense three-month plunge in Canadian output from November to January, the mild February decline seems like a relief, a version of “been down so long, it feels like up” to the economy.

In the Service sector:
Clarke Inc. (CKI) +13.27% 2.39. Resolve Business Outsourcing I (RBO.UN) +10.64% to $2.60. Cossette Inc. (KOS) +10.45% to $3.17.
Data Group Income Fund (The) (DGI.UN) -10.22% to $3.60. TMX Group Inc. (X) -5.87% to $32.09.

The Chrysler developments - including major planned production suspensions - hit already knocked-down auto parts makers.
Magna International (TSX:MG.A) fell 3.2 per cent, Linamar (TSX:LNR) dropped 4.2 per cent and Wescast Industries (TSX:WCS) plunged 19 per cent, losing 21 cents to 90 cents.

Roger Biduk
The S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index rose 0.29%.
EPCOR Power L.P. (EP.UN) -5.18% to $11.89.

Canadian Oil Sands Trust (TSX:COS.UN) units were down $1.66 at $24.64 after its quarterly earnings came in at $43 million, down from $298 million a year ago.

The S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index was down 1.59%.
Strongco Income Fund (SQP.UN) +51.52% to $2.50. Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLD) +7.46% to $2.45. Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B) +7.39% to $3.78.
JDS Uniphase Canada Ltd. (JDU) -14.70% to $5.63. GLV Inc. (GLV.A) -6.74% to $5.81.

ExxonMobil Corp.'s first-quarter profit fell 58 per cent from a year ago to US$4.6 billion as the world's biggest publicly traded oil company, like the rest of the industry, saw crude and gas prices fall precipitously. Its shares were down $1.77 to US$66.67.

The S&P/TSX Capped Health Care Index was higher by 0.6883%.
Noveko International Inc. (EKO) +5.38% to $2.74.

Exxon’s Canadian subsidiary, Imperial Oil Ltd. (TSX:IMO), reported its profit plunged to $289 million from $681 million, and its shares moved 35 cents lower to $42.65 in Toronto.

Roger Biduk
The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index fell 4.06% as the April bullion contract in New York sank $9.30 to US$891.20 an ounce.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM) +6.68% to $46.15.
Laramide Resources Ltd. (LAM) -10.83% to $2.14. Centerra Gold Inc. (CG) -8.53% to $6.65. Greystar Resources Ltd. (GSL) -6.18% to $4.10. Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV) -5.73% to $6.42. Premier Gold Mines Limited (PG) -5.46% to $2.25.

Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX:TCK.B) gained 52 cents to $12.53 after finalizing a deal to sell its 40 per cent stake in Alaska's Pogo gold property for US$245 million.
Denison Mines Corp. (TSX:DML) rose 23 cents or 11.5 per cent to $2.24 after CEO Peter Farmer predicted the uranium price will heat back up to US$60 or $70 a pound over the next year on increasing demand and dwindling supply.

The S&P/TSX Consumer Discretionary Index was 0.92% lower and the S&P/TSX Consumer Staples Index fell 0.78%.
Domtar Corporation (UFS) +16.85% to $2.15. Domtar (Canada) Paper Inc. (UFX) +13.66% to $2.08.
CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B) -5.15% to $23.01.

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